HBO’s Succession — the best show on TV, and if you don’t believe me, Google it — returns for its third season Sunday night at 9 p.m. and let this be a warning to my family: Leave me alone. I’m not to be disturbed.
Seriously. It’s been two years since we saw Logan Roy’s mouth warp into a smile(?) when he watched his son Kendall turn the tables on him in the most talked about press conference since Dennis Green told the world the Bears are what we thought they were. It’s been two years since we saw Roman fire off a bon mot. It’s been two years since we’ve had to contemplate how many broken Gregs you need to make a tomlette.
Bottom line? Come 9 p.m. Sunday, it will be the holy hour in my house. No talking. (Sorry, NBC Sunday Night Football. You’ll have my full attention again come Dec. 19.)
Oh, by the way, you may be wondering just what the heck I’m doing talking about Succession on a website devoted to the world of gambling.
Well uh … see … last week my boss Eric Raskin decided to write a fictional odds-based look at Apple TV’s Ted Lasso season finale, which made some sense because at least the world of Ted Lasso takes place on a soccer field (football pitch). Succession — outside of a Season 1, Episode 1 family softball game — has nothing to do with sports. But uh … whatever, right? We can have some fun.
So in that spirit — and stretching what we do here at US Bets to its absolute breaking point — I present to you the official* Westgate** odds for the third season of Succession. (*not official) (**Westgate has nothing to do with this, but it does add gravitas, don’t you think?)
Who will be in charge of Waystar Royco by season’s end?
The name of the show ain’t Succession for nothin’, ya know? While whoever is CEO by the end of Episode 10 certainly isn’t guaranteed to be CEO in perpetuity, it is certainly front and center of the show. So let’s break down all the contenders to the throne for Season 3 …
- Logan Roy -125: You want to bet against the king? Yeah, me neither. While he’s currently under fire from Congress, his board of directors, and his number one boy, betting against Logan feels like a fool’s errand. He’s the prohibitive favorite.
- Kendall Roy +175: Gotta be the second favorite, right? Though you have to think his dear ol’ dad will alert the media to Kendall’s drug issues, and maybe even his “oopsies I kinda accidentally killed a waiter” skeleton in his closet.
- Siobhan Roy +400: After playing the role of “red herring” in her father’s ongoing plot to retain control of his company in Season 2, Shiv is coming to the table in Season 3 as someone both Logan and Kendall probably need in their corner. If she’s smart, she plays them against each other and wins this thing going away.
- Roman Roy +750: He doesn’t even really want it if you ask me, but …
- Roman Roy and Gerri Kellman +750: Tarzan and Mole Woman!
- Stewy Hosseini/Sandy Furness +1500: Can they come back to the table and take the whole thing away from the Roy family? Could be.
- Connor Roy +4000: The Con-heads would love it, and somehow Logan can make this happen in some galaxy brain chess game, but come on. No way.
- Tom Wambsgans +6000: He may have married into the Roys, but he’s not a Roy. And as long as the Roys are in charge, Tom has zero chance to rise to the top. Another way to look at it: It’s a closed loop system when it comes to the Roy family.
- Greg Hirsch +10000: Ask me again in the final season, as that’s my official prediction for future CEO, it would be so perfect, but for now? This little Machiavellian (bleep) isn’t ready for prime time.
Sex, drugs, and a lot of curse words
Over/under on amount of times characters utter the phrase, “(Bleep) off”: 32.5
Over/under on amount of times we’ll see Kendall do cocaine: 3.5
Will Kendall overdose on cocaine? Yes +1200, No -2000
Over/under on number of times Roman and Gerri will have phone sex: 2.5
Will Roman and Gerri have sex sex? No -400, Yes +250
Over/under on number of lovers Shiv will take: 1.5
Four weddings and a funeral
Will Connor and Willa get married? No -800, Yes +1200
Will Tom and Shiv be married by the end of the season? Yes -250, No +325
Will Logan and Marcia be married by the end of the season? Yes -300, No +400
Will there be a wedding this season? No -600, Yes +900
Will Logan Roy survive the season? Yes -220, No +260
Odds, ends, and tomlettes
Will there be a more cringey scene than Kendall’s “L to the OG” rap? No -10000000, Yes +infinity
Over/under on times Tom and Greg nearly destroy each other: 2.5
Will Conor Roy restart his run for president? Yes -125, No +100
Over/under on how many people go to prison over the cruise debacle: 0.5
Will Greg have a line as good as, “Yes. Yes, if it is to be said. Uh, if it is to be said, so it be — so it is.” No -10000, Yes off the board
Will Tom eat more of Logan’s chicken? No -5000, Yes +2000
Will we see another Roy family softball game? No -9000, Yes +6000
Will we see more Boar on the Floor? Off the board, but hopefully.
And lastly …
Number of times I’ll fast-forward through the opening credits: 0.5, and I’d bang the under because there is no better theme song in the world.